As Donald Trump vies for a second term in 2024, a Trump presidency could have profound implications for India’s geopolitical standing. Trump’s past record and expected policy direction indicate that his approach could benefit India economically and strategically, while putting pressure on its regional rivals like China and Pakistan.
1. Stronger Strategic Alliance with India:
During his previous term, Trump prioritized defense cooperation with India, resulting in pivotal agreements, such as the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). His administration viewed India as a vital ally against China’s growing influence in Asia, especially within the “Quad” alliance alongside Japan and Australia. If reelected, Trump would likely continue to enhance this alliance, which could bolster India’s defense capabilities and counterbalance China’s assertiveness in the region.
2. China: Targeted Economic and Strategic Policies
Trump’s combative stance on China, including trade tariffs and restrictions on Chinese tech, could again provide India with economic opportunities. By realigning supply chains away from China, his administration indirectly benefited Indian industries. Experts believe that a Trump presidency could facilitate the relocation of American manufacturing and tech supply chains to India, strengthening its role as an alternative to China.
3. Economic Tensions and “Reciprocal” Trade Policies
Despite Trump’s pro-India tilt, his trade policies were a double-edged sword. Trump labeled India a “tariff king” and ended preferential trade benefits, pushing India to reduce tariffs and open its markets. This pressure may resurface if Trump wins, potentially affecting sectors like Indian pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT, which rely on U.S. exports. However, analysts note that Trump’s emphasis on strategic collaboration and supply-chain restructuring may outweigh trade friction, positioning India as a critical U.S. partner despite economic challenges.
4. Immigration Policies and H-1B Visa Issues
Trump’s restrictive stance on H-1B visas created hurdles for Indian professionals seeking employment in the U.S. His “America First” approach led to stricter visa policies that limited Indian workers’ access to U.S. opportunities. With Trump advocating for similar policies in his new campaign, India could see challenges in its IT sector’s reliance on U.S.-based workers if his approach prevails.
5. Impact on Pakistan and Regional Stability
Trump’s views on Pakistan have historically been mixed, from curtailing aid due to alleged support for terrorism to cooperating on limited issues. Analysts predict that a new Trump term could see intensified scrutiny on Pakistan’s activities, benefiting India’s interests in South Asia. Additionally, Trump’s expected closer alignment with India’s counterterrorism objectives could indirectly challenge Pakistan’s influence in the region.
In summary, a second Trump term could strengthen India’s global position while intensifying challenges for its adversaries. His approach would likely deepen strategic partnerships with India while leveraging trade policies to encourage economic alignment. However, India’s economic sectors that rely on U.S. exports may face renewed trade pressures, underscoring the need for a balanced approach in a Trump-era partnership.
