The market outlook for this week is poised to be shaped by a blend of domestic and global factors, with a particular focus on corporate earnings, inflation data, and updates on industrial activity and employment statistics across major economies. As investors brace for a crucial week of market dynamics, a combination of economic indicators and policy cues is expected to influence sentiments.
The earnings season is set to gather momentum with key companies, including IRDAI, HDFC Life, Infosys, Tata Elxsi, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank, slated to announce their Q4 FY25 results. These reports will provide critical insights into corporate performance and sectoral trends during the last quarter of the fiscal year.
In India, the release of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for March on April 15 will hold significant importance. This key economic indicator is expected to shed light on wholesale inflation trends, offering a clearer understanding of cost pressures at the production level. The data will also have implications for the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decisions, particularly with regard to interest rates and measures to combat inflationary pressures.
On the global front, key economic data from the United States will come into focus, starting with the Industrial Production (YoY) figures for March, scheduled for release on April 16. These numbers are expected to provide a comprehensive snapshot of manufacturing sector performance and overall industrial activity. Following this, the Initial Jobless Claims report, set for April 17, will be closely watched by both investors and policymakers. As a leading indicator of labor market health, any unexpected increase in jobless claims could signal emerging challenges in employment, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate adjustments.
China is also expected to dominate headlines on April 16 with the release of three critical economic indicators: Q1 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter), Industrial Production (YoY) for March, and the March Unemployment Rate. These data points will offer a broader perspective on the Chinese economy, particularly against the backdrop of global economic uncertainties and its impact on trade dynamics.
The domestic stock market experienced mixed performance during the trading week spanning April 7 to April 11, which was shortened due to the Mahavir Jayanti holiday. The Nifty index closed at 22,828, reflecting a decline of 0.33 percent, while the Sensex ended at 75,157, marking a 0.28 percent dip. The markets faced heightened volatility driven by tariff-related concerns, with Nifty reaching a low of 21,743 during the week before witnessing a strong recovery.
Sectorally, the realty index emerged as the weakest performer, facing significant headwinds, while FMCG stocks outperformed, buoyed by strong investor interest and positive sentiment in the sector.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree, offloading approximately USD 2.52 billion from the cash segment, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) lent some support to the market, with net inflows of around USD 2.65 billion, helping to stabilize sentiments to some extent.
Market experts remain cautious as the week unfolds. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, noted, “Nifty’s key supports lie at 22,500 and 22,200, while resistance is seen near 23,050. In this uncertain environment, Nifty remains a sell-on-rise market. Traders should stay cautious and avoid aggressive long positions until volatility subsides and technical strength is confirmed.”
According to Bajaj Broking Research, the week of April 12 to April 19, 2025, is set to be a critical one for global markets. “With inflation, industrial activity, and employment data lined up across the world’s largest economies, investors can expect increased volatility and sharper focus on central bank cues. These numbers will help shape expectations for future rate paths and economic resilience as we progress deeper into 2025,” the research team stated.
As markets brace for a dynamic week ahead, the interplay of domestic corporate results, inflation data, and key global economic indicators will likely determine the trajectory of both equities and broader economic trends.
