As Donald Trump re-emerges in the political landscape, the question arises: how would a second Trump term affect the dynamic between the United States and India? Building on a rapport established during his initial presidency, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cultivated a relationship marked by shared goals, particularly in defense, counter-terrorism, and economic engagement. Modi, emphasizing personal chemistry, famously greeted Trump as a “friend” and “partner” at public events like the “Howdy, Modi!” rally in Houston and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad.
The first Trump term saw landmark defense agreements, including India’s designation as a Major Defense Partner, enhancing military cooperation and technology-sharing agreements. This mutual focus extended to countering regional challenges such as China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific and Pakistan’s destabilizing role. India and the U.S. also collaborated on economic growth strategies, although differences emerged over trade tariffs.
Looking forward, a Trump 2.0 era could likely intensify defense cooperation as both countries continue to recalibrate their policies toward China. Trump has historically supported India’s sovereignty and development initiatives in the Indo-Pacific, an alignment that resonates with Modi’s “Act East” policy aimed at strengthening India’s regional influence. However, trade negotiations would likely resume, as Trump has historically sought to reduce trade imbalances, potentially complicating tariff discussions on sectors like agriculture and pharmaceuticals.
India’s interest in diversifying energy imports may also benefit from Trump’s support for U.S. energy exports, further solidifying an economic dimension in the alliance. Should Trump’s “America First” stance persist, India may face renewed immigration restrictions, a critical issue given its tech workforce in the U.S. Overall, Trump’s return could reinvigorate a partnership centered on geopolitical alignment and shared economic aspirations, albeit with nuanced negotiations on trade and immigration policies.
