The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an above-normal southwest monsoon for 2025, with seasonal rainfall forecasted at 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), subject to a margin of ±5%. The LPA for the June-September monsoon season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.
Present climatic conditions, including neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) patterns, are expected to persist during the monsoon. While ENSO conditions remain neutral, atmospheric circulation features resemble La Niña patterns. Climate model projections suggest these neutral ENSO and IOD conditions will endure throughout the season.
Another factor contributing to the optimistic forecast is the below-normal snow cover in Eurasia from January to March 2025. Historically, reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere correlates with robust Indian monsoons.
IMD’s forecast system integrates both dynamical and statistical models, relying on a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. The five-category probability forecast for the season indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal rainfall, with a 59% probability for rainfall exceeding 104% of LPA.
Spatial distribution models suggest above-normal rainfall for most parts of India, although below-normal rainfall is anticipated in some areas of Northwest India, Northeast India, and the Southern Peninsula. IMD plans to release an updated forecast in late May, detailing regional rainfall projections for the monsoon core zone and various homogeneous regions.
This forecast represents the first stage of IMD’s long-range prediction strategy, introduced in 2021. The two-stage approach combines quantitative and probabilistic forecasts, emphasizing advancements in climate prediction for better accuracy.
The IMD will continue monitoring sea surface temperature trends over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as these play a critical role in shaping monsoon behavior. The updated forecast, expected in late May, will also provide rainfall projections for individual regions, offering a more detailed outlook for the agricultural and economic sectors.
