For the week starting October 14, 2024, retail investors can expect cautious market movements on both BSE and NSE, primarily driven by broader economic indicators and foreign investor activity.
Nifty and Sensex Overview
The Nifty index has been consolidating in a narrow range, closing below the 25,000 mark last week. Despite some recovery after touching a low of around 24,700, resistance has been evident around the 25,100–25,235 levels. This suggests that any upward movement might face selling pressure, particularly as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue holding bearish positions. For a stronger pullback, Nifty needs to decisively breach the 25,100 resistance. On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,700, with further strong support in the 24,400–24,500 range.
Similarly, the Sensex is expected to experience volatility, with key support around 80,870 and resistance at 81,820. Until the broader market outlook improves, stock-specific strategies may provide better short-term returns.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty has also been consolidating, with its 40-hour EMA acting as a resistance barrier around 51,700. For any significant positive momentum, this level needs to be breached. Support for Bank Nifty lies in the 50,200–50,300 zone, with a further lower level around 49,500. Given the market’s current sentiment, retail investors should tread cautiously, as FIIs’ positioning may further dampen bullish sentiment.
Other Factors to Watch
- FII Activity: Persistent FII selling has been the primary reason for the recent sell-off. Any shift in their strategy could offer relief to the market, but until that happens, the bias remains negative.
- Global Cues: Global market movements, particularly in the U.S. and European markets, could play a role in influencing the Indian markets. Any positive developments or easing of global economic concerns could help stabilize domestic markets.
- RBI’s Stance: Investors should also watch out for any signals from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as its monetary policy and stance on inflation will influence market sentiment.
Given the cautious outlook, retail investors are advised to adopt a stock-specific approach, targeting sectors that exhibit resilience, such as IT, FMCG, and pharmaceuticals, while being vigilant about global cues and FII activity.
